On Microsoft’s XNA Play

Joe Wilcox at the Microsoft Monitor has some solid insight and thought into Redmonds latest attempt to bundle game development tools for both XBox and Windows.

…I see inherent conflict between Microsoft the platform provider and Microsoft the applications developer. I would apply the same thinking to Microsoft the multiple platform provider. Microsoft must be careful about what design decisions its developers make with respect to Windows and Xbox gaming. The risk is using one platform to build sales for the other, and visa versa, which, like an addictive drug, delivers an initial high but later compromising dependence. [Microsoft Monitor]

T-Mobile doing better on HotSpots?

Glenn posts some more detail on T-Mobile today and it seems their cost structure could be much lower than previously thought. As a carrier they get apparently get a very sweet deal on T-1 lines…

In his post, he notes that even when he was at Wayport, his average T-1 cost was $250 per month, and that T-Mobile could be paying as little as $90 per month in many locations in which they have co-located equipment to carry their cell traffic.

Combine that knowledge with Carlo Longino’s analysis of our post yesterday about T-Mobile’s revenue averaging to $400 per location per month, and you start to see that they could, in fact, be running far cash-flow positive. (Carlo wonders if the infrastructure is all T-1 still; that’s what T-Mobile confirmed for me all last year for Kinko’s, Borders, and all Starbucks past and future.)

Carlo notes, by the way, that T-Mobile said 67 percent of users are subscribers. This doesn’t give us apples to apples on sessions, but if you ascribe $1.2 million to 48,000 subscribers at an average rate of $25/month ($20 for T-Mobile cell users, $30 for one-year commitment regular users, $40 for month-to-month) that would leave you about 25,000 hourly/day sessions a month. Is it really possible T-Mobile has 48,000 subscribers?

Even if T-Mobile is paying prices all across the board, Jim’s information leads me to believe that their recurring costs might be substantially lower than anyone has previously estimated. Carlo’s factoid contributes the knowledge, if it’s all connected correctly, that the cell carrier might be signing up many more regular users of Wi-Fi service than previously imagined. [Wi-Fi Networking News]

Thinking again about how crowded the Starbucks I’ve been visiting are, it seems like T-Mobile is doing just fine.

Ballmer on Online Marketing

Speaking at recent online marketing conference hosted at Microsoft…

…Microsoft also unveiled a study on the effectiveness of online advertising. The company is using the study as the basis for an argument that companies spending about 1 percent of their advertising budget online should consider increasing that to 4 percent or 5 percent because people are spending more time online.

Ballmer said Microsoft spends about 12 percent of its media budget on online advertising, and that he orders his staff to “saturate” that market first and foremost.

“I want to make sure (a user) can’t get through … an online experience without hitting a Microsoft ad,” he said. [InformationWeek]

Where do you want to click-through today?

T-Mobile trying to make money on Hotspots

Perhaps the use of Cable or DSL would have been a better investment for connectivity…

From my experience here in NYC, the Starbucks are hopping in the am and in the afternoon. I’ve found it impossible to even find a seat and noticed that there are many laptops open – I assume connected, though of course people might just be playing solitaire.

Enck noted, however, that with 4,200 locations by year’s end, $1.6M works out to $13 per hotspot per day on average. This is slightly higher per store revenue than estimated a year ago when Starbucks slipped the news that they were averaging 25,000 sessions per week. At that time, I was estimating an average of $150 of gross revenue per Starbucks locations per month. The more current numbers are triple that.

But with roughly $400 per month per store, how does T-Mobile ever expect to even pay on a current basis for the cost of each store’s dedicated T-1 line, much less other ongoing costs, and the original capital expenditure? They would need to at least quadruple this revenue figure to pay out CapX and current operational costs.[Wi-Fi Networking News: T-Mobile Says $1.4M Per Month Revenue in 2003]

Rock and Roll Remotely

I knew Regal Cinema was looking to get into expanding the pre-show entertainment at the movies, but this is a whole new take on what you can do at the theater. I caught myself thinking this would actually be a cool thing for someone in my situation (young baby makes getting to a concert impossible given the nature of the concert atmosphere) and going to the movies is already something I know we can handle having done so a bunch of times. The theaters already have great sound and picture and unless you get good seats you are pretty much watching on a screen anyway – at least at the big shows. Who knows… this just might work.

Rock’n’Roll Multiplex. So, now you have a choice. You can fork over $49.50 for a nosebleed seat to see Prince live at Staples Arena in L.A., or you can splurge a big fifteen bucks to see the same concert simulcast live at any of 40 Regal Cinema movie theaters, reports Eleena De Lisser in The Wall Street Journal. [reveries – cool news of the day]

Guru Red Manifesto

Good and thought provoking material…

Mike Smock and Curt Sahakian now offer the Guru Red Manifesto online, proposing a 52-point plan to improve organizational agility, assertiveness, cohesiveness, and subtlety. [Fast Company Now]

TiVo looks to tune in to advertisers

The company hopes advertisers will warm to its latest experiment, due out in the next few months. Known as Video-to-Video, the idea is to let viewers click a button on their remote control to immediately watch a 3-minute video describing products and services that might appeal to them. The marketing clips are promoted through small icons that appear on the TV screen as viewers fast-forward past regular ads.

Video-to-video is similar to a service TiVo has previously sold without much demand. But the company hopes the new promotions will better lure marquee advertisers. Many issues have yet to be worked out. But for advertisers, TiVo’s new feature could help usher in changes to TV advertising that ad executives say is sorely in need of an overhaul. [CNET News.com]

Small Business is Big Business

Microsoft is bidding adieu to its bCentral site of small business services and resurrecting it as the Microsoft Small Business Center Website. A transition is underway now, leading up to official closure of bCentral in early summer and complete migration of services and content over to the Small Business Center.

The move is an ambitious undertaking and part of Microsoft’s ambitious $2 billion investment in the small- and medium-business market. My report, “Investing $2 Billion on 45 Million: Microsoft Sales Assault Targets SMBs,” explores where the broader investment makes sense or comes up short.

Sometimes, subtle changes are significant. The new small-biz Web property will be hosted on a microsoft.com domain; right now services come from bcentral.com. Jupiter Research surveys show that SMBs increasingly want to buy technology direct from the vendor rather than go through resellers or other third parties. The trend is more pronounced among the smallest SMBs. An operation coming off microsoft.com takes advantage of Microsoft’s brand equity and offers a more direct-like relationship. [Microsoft Monitor: Bye Bye bCentral, Hello SBC]

Inc.com | The 10 Secrets of a Master Networker

This is a great read… extremely motivating!

Keith Ferrazzi enters your life like a circus coming to town — the two ringing cell phones, the two PalmPilots, the multiple conversations in which he seems to be listening and talking simultaneously. The way he walks and looks, all tanned and fit, with the styled hair and custom suit and black Prada shoes. The deals that are hanging in the air, the favors being extended or secured, the sideshows, the laughter, the juggling. That irresistible balloon of energy. [Inc.com]

BW: Plug and Play TV

This will be interesting to watch… I’d say the average TV lasts for about 10 years, but in the last 5 years we’ve had 2 types of regular cable boxes and then the addition of an integrated DVR box… soon another will come when HDTV PVR is ready. I don’t know whether consumers will be happy with a TV less capable just because it can do some tricks without a box. Kinda like it is now… actually. In some cable systems you don’t need a box to decode, but you don’t have a DVR or MOD. The box adds value – not just premium channel decoding.

Over the next six months, Sharp, Pioneer (PIO ), and Motorola (MOT ) will introduce cable-ready TVs. And such sets will account for 500,000 of the 7 million or so flat-panel TVs that will be sold in the U.S. this year, up from nearly zero in 2003, estimates Michelle Abraham, an analyst with tech consultancy Cahners In-Stat in Scottsdale, Ariz.

TIME TO ADJUST.  Cable companies like this just fine. They can imagine sending new subscribers an activation card in the mail, which of course is preferable to buying millions of set-top boxes and hiring people to install them. Plus, they won’t have to deal with the 30% of customers who never return their boxes after dropping cable service, says Vamsi Sistla, an analyst with ABI Research in Oyster Bay, N.Y.

For makers of set-top boxes, however, the story is different. Motorola Broadband, Scientific-Atlanta (SFA ), Pioneer, and Pace Micro Technology will have to adjust their strategies or wither. [BW Online]

Record Stores: We’re Fine, Thanks

The recording industry may protest, but some owners of independent music stores say file trading is good for business. Katie Dean reports from the South by Southwest conference in Austin, Texas. [Wired News]

Take Hoodlums Music, located on the Arizona State University campus, which opened during the heyday of Napster. One might think Net-savvy students would ignore the shop in favor of free downloads.

“It’s a myth,” said Steve Wiley, co-owner of the store. “We see them wanting to buy music.”

High prices, rather than file sharing, are what usually stop a kid from buying a CD, Wiley said.

AOL/MSN?

Broadband Reports says rumors are circulating that Microsoft could buy AOL. The New York Post claims Time Warner execs have met privately with Microsoft about a possible purchase of the black-sheep of the Time Warner family. Time Warner lawyers are also analyzing any possible antitrust violations such a merger would cause, the Post claims. A Microsoft investment in Time Warner Cable is also being considered, the paper says.

A deal might combine AOL’s 24 million subscribers with the 9 million at Microsoft’s MSN.

What’s their broadband strategy? How about licensed broadband wireless – from Nextel or Sprint. [Daily Wireless]

Google Launches Local Search

This looks sweet – I did a search for free wifi in my neighborhood.

Today, Google officially launched Google Local, a search feature designed to make local searches easier. Users can type in a search term followed by a city name or go to local.google.com and perform the search there. Last week, Yahoo launched a local search feature through its Yahoo Maps application, allowing users to drill down locally to restaurants and other local destinations. While not available right now, Google has plans to offer local advertising on the new service. CNET reports. [MarketingWonk]

UI Wars: Sony loves Symbian – grits teeth

Launching two new high-end phones this week, Sony Ericsson’s CEO, Katsumi Ihara, gave a pointed reminded to Symbian that its commitment had better not waver.

“There are two important factors for Sony Ericsson with the Symbian OS,” Ihara said, ComputerWire reports. “It should be open to anybody. Not perceived as proprietary to a single manufacturer. [It also depends on] UIQ being developed within Symbian. As long as those two conditions are met, Symbian will remain our open platform of choice.”

Back when Symbian couldn’t decide to be in or out of the UI business, but really thought it should be out, a buyer was discreetly sought for the Ronneby lab. Discussions to create a joint-venture with Motorola reached quite an advanced stage. But David Levin, Symbian’s second CEO, thought it would be in Symbian’s strategic interest to continue to offering UIQ; he decided instead to keep it, but give the lab some independence.

Ihara’s nudge is a reminder of how important this decision turned out to be. The disgruntled shareholders who assembled in London this week for Psion’s EGM base their opposition on the belief that Symbian is worth more as a vendor-neutral joint venture backed by the largest handset manufacturers. With Motorola having pulled out last year, the “neutral” proposition now very much depends on Sony Ericsson. It has a hit phone with the P900, and where there’s volume and an open platform, there should be developers.

Why can’t Sony Ericsson simply up its stake? Despite two illustrious parents, the company has been severely constricted for cash. In Ericsson’s case, it’s can’t pay; in Sony’s case, it’s won’t pay. The UIQ team gave Sony Ericsson more reasons to be cheerful at Cannes, announcing a one-handed UIQ user interface that will compete for developers with Series 60. But with resources tight, Sony Ericsson has a reason to be reluctant to pour money into a venture which will be perceived to be owned by Nokia. Why should it do the heavy lifting for the Finns? [The Register]

‘HP Music’ goes live, Apple offers iTunes for HP

I don’t know about you, but this feels pretty damn corporate and cold too me… not like it should be… fun! I realize the service is Apple’s but the HP site certainly stays well within the corporate standard. You’d think this would be a case where you might want to bend the rules a bit…

HP yesterday launched a website for HP Music, its forthcoming music download service based on iTunes… [MacNN]