Michael Gartenberg sums up a few thoughts I’ve also had over the past few years. While Tivo is cool it’s far from a success. Microsoft Media Center is very cool, but also still a niche product. Apple has the brand, the product design and software know-how to design and deliver a mass-oriented living room grand slam. Until they do though there will continue to be a variety of options that get close, but involve a fair degree of user involvement and wife frustration.
One of the themes I keep coming back to is the failure of tech companies to market well to mainstream audiences. There’s been a loss of the ability to appeal to both passengers and sailors. Some folks are doing this well and reaping success. Don’t believe me? How many flash based MP3 players are folks willing to wait 4-8 weeks to purchase? How many TiVos (or any DVR for that matter) were sold over the last seven years? (our research says it’s about a 4% install base) See my point?
If Apple believed that consumers are interested in consuming digital content (as opposed to creating movies and music) other than music (and they are), I believe they could be dominant. Not strong. Not a player amongst many. Dominant. It’s a good thing for Microsoft and others that Steve Jobs doesn’t believe in a 10′ UI for PCs, or that consumers are interested in recording TV shows or movies on a personal computer (for TV playback) or in mobile video. [Michael Gartenberg]